WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US government will release fresh unemployment figures Friday, with Americans hoping for some sign that a limping economic recovery has not come to a stop.
They could be hoping against hope. Analysts believe the ranks of working Americans shrank by around 87,000 last month, helping to push the unemployment rate up to 9.6 percent.
That would be bad news for the US economy and would do nothing to shake fears of a jobless recovery or even a double dip recession.
It also would be bad news for President Barack Obama, who is running out of time to put the economy firmly back on track before congressional elections in November.
Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner tried to head-off critics, admitting the unemployment rate could go up before it goes down.
But, he said, a rise in the jobless rate might be reflecting the return of out-of-work Americans to a jobs market that offers more hope than a year ago.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has also warned that US firms are not hiring fast enough to "materially" affect the jobless rate.
But a bad figure would also leave doomsayers without a smoking gun, experts say.
For months investors have anxiously awaited any clue of where the economy is headed, with data frequently providing a confused snap shot.
Amelia Bourdeau of UBS says it will take a monumental shift to confirm that the recovery is firmly on or off the rails.
"A US payroll result on or near expectations is not likely to provide the market with much direction," Bourdeau said.
It could also take a major change in the situation to convince the Federal Reserve to restart stimulus policies when its rate-setting committee meets on Tuesday.
"We do not think this will be the case unless the July employment news is considerably weaker than we forecast," said Deutsche Bank analyst Joseph LaVorgna and Carl Riccadonna.
The figure that everyone from Obama to market-watchers will focus intently on is that for jobs created by private companies, as thousands of temporary census-taking job evaporate.
"If July private payrolls are weak, then there will be a decent chance (Fed) officials move to reinvest maturing securities," said LaVorgna and Riccadonna, describing a policy designed to stimulate growth.
But most analysts agree the central bank will shy away from any new measures unless absolutely necessary, to avoid using one of their few remaining policy levers.
"The central bank's problem now is that any additional monetary stimulus will require unconventional methods," said Ryan Sweet of Moody's Economy.com "and the cost and benefit trade-off of these are unclear."
Despite the gloom, a small but resolute group of economists is convinced the real economic picture is better than data suggest.
"The underlying fundamentals for the labor market are positive," said Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities. "Firms are incredibly (probably excessively) lean and will need to hire at any sign that demand is picking up.
"My bottom line is that hiring will eventually come in droves, just not quite yet."